Continued heavy rain in the deep south
Friday 12th August 2016
Disturbance twenty two is a weak area of low pressure centred over southwest Mississippi. It continues to produce showers and thunderstorms from south Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle and across the north-central Gulf. This low will drift west-nor'west into western Louisiana through Saturday and will produce heavy showers and thunderstorms from northwest Florida through east Texas into the weekend. The heaviest rain will fall across south-central and southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through Saturday with rainfall totals of up to 6 to 10 inches. This is all pretty bad news if you are getting wet but not a tropical development risk, thankfully.
Disturbance twenty three is located over the eastern Caribbean south of Puerto Rico and is moving to the west-nor'west at 12 knots. There is a slight chance of tropical development when it moves into the Bay of Campeche by Tuesday of next week where it may interact with an upper level low to its west at that time. The more likely scenario is that this will continue to be a disturbance as it moves across the Bay of Campeche and southern Gulf and will increase shower and thunderstorm activity across the Gulf and Bay of Campeche before moving into Mexico and south Texas.
Disturbance twenty two is about 170 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands and is moving west at 10 knots. It will encounter Saharan dust across the tropical Atlantic over the next few days which will prevent any development. It may pass north of the Caribbean later next week or dissipate over the Atlantic due to hostile environmental conditions.