Cheeky new low over Lake Chad attracting interest
Tuesday 16th August 2016
Weak disturbance twenty four is a centred around 200 miles to the north east of the Leeward Islands, still hurrying west at 21 knots. This groundspeed, dry air and strong wind shear will keep the disturbance suppressed.
Disturbance twenty five is around two days west of the Cape Verde Islands and moving quickly towards the west at 18 knots. With warm water, low wind shear, and moist air over the system, conditions are favourable for further development and this may be our next tropical disturbance or even tropical storm. Conditions in the far west are however unfavourable it approaches the Lesser Antilles which may suppress the system and nudge it to the north of the Caribbean and into the Atlantic.
We are entering peak season now when the number of disturbances increases dramatically to a peak around mid-September then decelerates again. That's the statistics anyway. The reality is a little different although we do have a cheeky little low inland over central sub-tropical Africa. This is currently embedded in a strong westbound wave just to the west of Lake Chad and is generating interest already. As things stand today, this is expected to leave the west coast in around 4 days time by which time environmental circumstances will be favourable for a clear run at the Caribbean.