Newbie disturbance waterborne in the east
Sunday 21st August 2016
FIONA is still hanging on to tropical storm strength but only by a whisker, and is fading fast. Currently slightly west of central Atlantic and moving west-nor'west at 10 knots, this will have no impact on land.
Tropical disturbance twenty six has lost some of its earlier promise, now looking less likely to deep significantly until it reaches the west, and even then, may pass further north than originally anticipated. This is producing winds of between 25 and 35 knots which are not expected to stiffen for the next few days. Nonetheless, this is encountering changeable conditions with patches of dry air and some upper level shear, making forecasting even more uncertain than usual, as a consequence. It does seem that this may now curve early and only develop late as it approaches the Bahamas but I wouldn't stake my shirt on it. I do think irrespective of track, this will bring gusty showers and storms through the central Lesser Antilles to Puerto Rico by Wednesday.
As expected, newbie disturbance twenty seven emerged off the African coast yesterday and is currently located near about 300 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands and is moving west at 8 knots. Aerial imagery shows a large area of showers and thunderstorms which are becoming better organised the likelihood is increasing of this becoming a tropical disturbance within the next two to three days although uncertainty lies ahead. A weather eye needed on this one.