HERMINE making final swipe at eastern seaboard
Tuesday 6th September 2016
Post-tropical storm HERMINE is now loafing around, centred approximately 100 miles south east of Long Island at peak strength hurricane severity rating 7 (4 for size and 3 for intensity) with maximum winds of 55 knots gusting 70, mainly to the west of centre. As this has a tropical storm force wind radius of 250 miles, there is still a tropical storm warning for the coast between Long Island and Massachusetts but all other areas have lowered the storm cones. There is an upper level low headed towards HERMINE which should sweep the system up, drag it to the east and eventually absorb it. As a consequence, this is probably the nearest this will get to the eastern seaboard and it should have no other impact aside from a few torrid days for some unlucky seafarers. There remains a risk of higher than normal tides and heavy rain along the north of the eastern seaboard of course.
Disturbance thirty is a tropical wave centred around 130 miles south of Port- au-Prince moving west at 12 knots bringing shower and thunderstorm activity to Hispaniola. Development chances remain slim but may increase as the system tracks west. Opinions remain divided across the chattering rabble as to it heading due west into central America or nudging north into the far south western Gulf of Mexico in around 6 days from now.
Disturbance thirty one wimped out a couple of hundred miles to the north west of the Cape Verde islands.
Disturbance thirty two is centred around 750 miles north-nor'east of the mouth of the Amazon heading west at a leisurely 12 knots. This will approach the Leeward Islands by the end of the week. At the moment, this is showing no sign of surface circulation and conditions ahead are not particularly inspiring. Aerial imagery shows a large disorganised area of cloud leaving the coast of west Africa now - designated disturbance thirty three. It is far too early to predict but more threatening systems have left the coast in the last month and come to nothing.
Stand by for the final swipe along the north of the eastern seaboard from HERMINE, otherwise stand easy.