Two named storms pose no threat to land
Thursday 15th September 2016
Disturbance thirty is currently centred around 100 miles south of the Texas-Louisiana border. This is quite weak and not expected to develop but may bring enhanced showers and thunderstorms to the northwest Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. The thunderstorms may produce some gusty winds across the deepwater areas of the Louisiana and Texas coasts over the next day or two as the disturbance moves slowly west towards the lower Texas coast and northeast Mexico.
Post tropical storm JULIA is now 120 miles south east of Charleston, South Carolina and headed offshore at about 7 knots. JULIA is now a tropical depression and is expected to become a remnant low due to upper level shear by Saturday. As JULIA continues to move away from the coast, the convection centre has moved further away from the coast of North Carolina and South Carolina. Heavy rainfall and localised flooding will soon decrease. This system is expected to meander drunkenly for a day or two before zipping off to the east but this is likely to be well offshore and fairly weak by then anyway.
Tropical storm IAN is located 900 miles east-sou'east of Nova Scotia and is in the process of transitioning into an extra-tropical storm. This poses no threat to land but will provide unwelcome green water for North Atlantic sailors.
Disturbance thirty four went up a gear last night and is now tropical depression twelve. This is now centred some 2,000 miles east of the northernmost Leeward Islands and headed west at 12 knots. This system continues to struggle with wind shear and dry air in its path. These unfavourable conditions will continue to affect the depression off and on for the next week as it tracks west. There may be a period of slightly less hostile conditions in 3-4 days that would allow for the depression to reach tropical storm strength, but the strengthening may be short-lived. As a weak tropical storm or a depression, a more westerly track is likely. This means that the system could affect the islands of the northeast Caribbean in about a week.