Foul days at sea, stand easy ashore

Saturday 17th September 2016

Disturbance thirty hasn't moved far and is still centred close to the beach over the border of Texas and Louisiana. There are no signs of organisation and thunderstorms have weakened as it creeps ashore. This will bring enhanced showers and storms across the area today but will fade soon.

JULIA has been up and down like a fiddler's elbow between tropical storm and depression but has now finally weakened to a tropical depression about 270 miles southeast of Charleston. This is forecast to weaken to a remnant low within the next 24 hours as it loafs about off the eastern seaboard and should dissipate by the middle of next week with no impact expected on land. Amused but not alarmed to see one observer posting a track this morning back towards Miami. Yup. Same guy.

IAN has been absorbed into the melee of today's North Atlantic pressure map. No shape or organisation now just filthy weather set to add to the foulness of the post-Indian summer of the British Isles in the next week or so.

KARL is about midway between The Gambia and the Leeward Islands now, a tad north of the convergence zone and being battered by strong westerly wind shear from an upper trough to its north. The latest model guidance indicates that unfavourable conditions will last for at least a couple more before gradual intensification to a nasty little hurricane late next week. The consensus seems to be for KARL to curve north well clear of the Caribbean and eastern seaboard but differences of opinion seem strong thereafter between US and European commentators as to which side or indeed, how far this will clear Bermuda.

Disturbance thirty five has just left the African coast and is now about 250 miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, westbound at 10 knots. The disturbance is expected to drench the Cape Verde Islands tomorrow and is showing signs of becoming better organised with favourable environmental conditions for development later. It is far too early to call although I can think of at least one determined catastrophe enthusiast licking his lips and eyeing up Miami already.

Foul days at sea, stand easy ashore.