MATTHEW to make Haiti landfall tomorrow

Sunday 2nd October 2016

Category four hurricane MATTHEW is centred about 220 miles south west of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. As if a nasty category four or five hurricane landfall isn't bad news enough already, a ground speed of little more than walking speed (albeit expected to pick up soon) headed their way is the last thing the people of Haiti need right now. Crawling across lush warm water will intensify MATTHEW, which has weakened a little at times over the past 24 hours and a prolonged passage time at landfall tomorrow afternoon will be tortuous. At present, MATTHEW has wind gusts of up to 160 knots and a hurricane severity rating of 32 out of a possible 50 points (13 size, 19 intensity) and an expected peak at landfall of 35 out of a possible 50 points (15 size, 20 intensity) as a category five hurricane. One forecaster is predicting 40 - yes 40 inches of rainfall. This is going to be extremely bad news and tragic human costs are almost inevitable.

MATTHEW has made the expected turn to starboard and now heads for Haiti. A 225 mile windfield will not go unnoticed in Jamaica or Cuba. After passing over these islands, some weakening can be expected however, MATTHEW will remain a powerful hurricane when it passes over the Bahamas by the middle of this coming week. Most observers expect MATTHEW to pass well clear of the eastern seaboard however the U.K. Met Office have a track close to the coast of Florida. Sorry about that.

Disturbance thirty nine is around 600 miles north west of the Windward Islands and is moving to the west-nor'west at 13 knots. This disturbance remains disorganised and looks to be headed for mid-Atlantic anonymity. Disturbance thirty eight is now centred about 1500 miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles and is westbound at 12 knots. It is moving to the west at 15 mph. There seems little enthusiasm to develop as it hobbles across the central Atlantic.

Stand by for hurricane force conditions across Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba with rainfall in biblical proportions.