MATTHEW headed for Bahamas

Wednesday 5th October 2016 Morning update

An hour ago, hurricane MATTHEW was centred 300 miles southeast of Nassau, northbound at 6 knots with maximum wind speed of 135 knots and a wide tropical storm windfield of 200 miles which is increasing. MATTHEW has had a pop at Cuba and weakened slightly but only temporarily. MATTHEW will reintensify to a hurricane severity rating of 32 out of a possible 50 points (15 size, 17 intensity) soon meaning a category four hurricane will pass through the Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading over the south-eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, and should reach the central and north-western Bahamas later today.

Looking ahead, all commentators are all lining up tracks closer to the coast of Florida. This change means that the destructive core may move over coastal areas of central Florida from late tomorrow. Any deviation, even by a mere few miles, will result in a landfall in Florida. Thereafter, it appears likely that there could be a sharp turn to the east-nor'east. This could keep the eye south of the Carolinas although hurricane force winds will still impact the Carolina coast. There is a slight ray of hope in some weakening predicted in 48 hours from now but I'd emphasise the word ‘slight'.

We also have tropical storm NICOLE now. 400 miles north east of Puerto Rico, this will be a fish storm. More in our daily update later.

Stand to in the Bahamas.