NICOLE still producing strong winds in the north Atlantic

Tuesday 18th October 2016

From west to east –
Disturbance forty six is an area of mixed rising and falling air more or less parked off the coast of Nicaragua, which is causing some disturbed weather across the south-western Caribbean. Steering currents between pressure gradients are producing a net zero in this region so we can expect this to remain in place for a few more days. As this is radiating across both land and sea, the chances of this developing are fairly slim however it will produce heavy rain across the region until the stalemate aloft is broken.

Disturbance forty four is a broad area of low pressure centred just north of the eastern Bahamas moving slowly northwest. Environmental conditions are favourable for development which has given this disturbance a twinkle in its eye. There is a reasonable chance that this could adopt surface organisation and vertical convection over the next few days and perhaps become the fourteenth named storm of the 2016 season. Regardless of development, this low pressure cell will move to the north-nor'west and then edge to a northerly heading passing well clear of the eastern seaboard, although it may brush Nova Scotia and Newfoundland later in the week.

We still have a named storm in NICOLE some 700 miles east of Newfoundland producing 60 knot winds. This is heading north into the gloom of the sub-polar north Atlantic at a reckless ground speed of 31 knots which should help this dissipate. In the meantime, what is left of NICOLE will make life miserable for sailors, seabirds and the odd walrus but will be of no real interest to the rest of us.
Way out to the east, disturbance forty five is centred about 400 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands moving to the west-nor'west at 8 knots and will continue on this heading. This is taking the disturbance away from the intertropical convergence zone and reducing its chances of surviving the Atlantic crossing.

So, a few more difficult flying days for puffins and discomfort for sailors in northern waters, otherwise stand easy. 

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