This may look like the end of the season....

... but it isn't.

Monday 24th October 2016

Disturbance forty five remains an elongated disturbance that has shifted east as expected and is now about 800 miles north-nor'east of the mouth of the Amazon. This is expected to slowly track to the northwest over the next few days. The chances of this developing remain the same (‘possible but not probable') but in any event will remain out to sea.

On or two hopeful readers have asked if this is the end of the season. I'll admit that the Atlantic basin is quiet, which is not unusual for mid-October as tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa become less frequent, but it is too early to sign off just yet. In these last few weeks of the season, the far western Caribbean and sea areas around the Bahamas are still fertile for storm development and conditions remain favourable. I won't tempt providence by suggesting that the season might be over for the Gulf of Mexico, but winter conditions are beginning to take shape. Despite this welcome lull, the prima donna is still on the bus to the theatre and plans on stopping off for a plate of chips first, I'm afraid.

Stand easy.