A new rainmaker for central America

Wednesday 26th October 2016

A new disturbance forty eight has piped up in one of the few remaining hot spots of the season - the far western Caribbean - centred around 150 miles east of the Nicaragua-Honduras border. This is stationary at the moment in an area of upper level calm, not dissimilar to disturbance forty six which did the same last week. This will stooge about aimlessly for a day or so, producing heavy rain as far north as the Yucatan peninsula before drifting ashore. This is unlikely to develop, as things stand.

Disturbance forty five hasn't moved much either. This is still centred around 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and is expected to move towards the northwest with a turn toward the north when it eventually decides to get under way. There is still little chance of development.

Disturbance forty nine is new today. This is a wide trough centred around 650 miles south west of the Cape Verde Islands and expected to drift toward the northwest over the next couple of days. This has a slight chance of development but will remain in mid-Atlantic anonymity. I do think the east-west conveyor belt is done for the season, and anything developing from hereon is likely to form in the west. Fertile conditions remain in the western Caribbean and off the far south-eastern seaboard/Bahamas sea areas.

Stand easy.