Time for the diva to tune up for the grand finale
Monday 31st October 2016
I've taken a little longer reading the overnight chatter today and had a hopeful shufti at this morning's charts. I am usually the last to ring down Finished With Engines, but even I have to admit that it does look as if it's time for the orchestra to start tuning up and to drag in the diva from the chip shop next door in preparation for the final curtain.
Disturbance forty eight is a broad area of low pressure centred over the northwest Caribbean, close to the coast of Honduras. Wind shear decreased overnight, but this was not really holding development at bay and this system will limp ashore over the next few days without increased impact. In the meantime, this will continue to produce enhanced showers and thunderstorms to Cuba, the Yucatan peninsula, and portions of Central America.
Disturbance fifty is centred around 250 miles north of Puerto Rico. This is a broad area of low pressure that is producing a few squalls, but is encountering very strong westerly winds aloft. Last night, I would have given this a 10% chance of development but I'm fairly certain now that this is weakening. This is one of the few remaining areas of warm water I'm watching, so I'm not writing it off altogether, but this will be no threat to land.
Disturbance forty nine is a trough of low pressure centred about 400 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands and is drifting north. Development is not expected. Pathetic effort.
Frontal activity now criss-crosses the Gulf of Mexico and across to the eastern seaboard. Disturbances leaving the African mainland are withering on the vine and not getting far past the Cape Verde Islands. Wind shear is hacking away at the western Caribbean – my other warm water hot spot. The season is close to an end now and we'll continue to report until we think there are no surprises left.
Until then stand easy.