All quiet across the reporting region

Tuesday 1st November 2016

Disturbance forty eight is weakening as it drifts west towards the beach in central America. This is still producing showers and thunderstorms across western Cuba, the Yucatan peninsula, and portions of Central America but has had its day.

Disturbance fifty is centred around 350 miles north-nor'east of Puerto Rico and weakening. This unlikely to be recognisable tomorrow.

Disturbance forty nine is barely visible from satellite imagery, centred around 500 miles west-nor'west of the Cape Verde Islands. This could be its final day.

This is all excellent news for someone whose Boss is currently on a beach in the Antigua and had my personal assurance that the timing was fine. We do still need to watch for late runners though. Last year KATE passed Bermuda on November 10th. In 2014, MELISSA tracked well clear of the eastern seaboard around November 19th. In 2012 SEAN passed the Bahamas on November 8th. TOMAS crossed the Turks and Caicos Islands on November 6th (and later became a hurricane), 2009 saw IDA in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on November 10th, PALOMA crossed Cuba on November 8th 2008 and NOEL passed clear of the eastern seaboard during the first week in November 2007.

Give me a week or so yet. Just to be sure. (Please Lord, anywhere but Antigua).

Stand easy.