Final days of lookout as season draws to a close

Wednesday 9th November 2016

As things stand today, there are currently no disturbances in the Atlantic and what little circulating air is there, is pathetic and pointless. Water temperatures are still a little above normal in the far western Caribbean and south west Atlantic, so the threat for some formation remains possible and a strong tropical system in late November would not be unprecedented. Hurricanes KATE in 1985 and LENNY in 1999 are two examples of late-season hurricanes that formed during the middle of November – both of which reached major hurricane status. Winter defences are now in place. Wind shear is expected to remain relatively high for the rest of the November over the majority of the Atlantic basin and seasonal frontal activity has battened down the hatches on the Gulf of Mexico. So, that should in theory, be that.

Having said all that, I am still a little uneasy. Something isn't right. Nobody likes nasty surprises. Maybe a few more days lookout yet.

Stand easy.