Storm clouds gathering in south western Caribbean.
Saturday 12th November 2016
Disturbance fifty two is located over the southwest Caribbean loosely centred between the coasts of Nicaragua and Colombia. The current consensus seems to favour the development of a tropical depression or tropical storm in the region later this week. There are two possible paths that such a system could take. It could either drift west and move inland into Central America or move north past Jamaica and across eastern Cuba next weekend then into the eastern Bahamas. Strong westerly winds aloft across the northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico would prevent it from moving in that direction. As things stand there would be no threat to the U.S. East Coast.
Due to the predicted presence of significant wind shear across the northern Caribbean and the Bahamas, it is likely that peak intensity would be limited to about 55 knots. Should this develop into a storm, it would be fairly weak and the main threat would be from heavy rainfall across Jamaica, Haiti, eastern Cuba and the eastern Bahamas next Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.