Stationary disturbance deepening in south west Caribbean
Monday 14th November 2016
Disturbance fifty two is still parked midway between Nicaragua and Columbia in the far southwestern Caribbean where a low pressure centre is predicted to form on Thursday or Friday. The chances are increasing of this developing into a tropical depression or storm by Friday as it drifts slowly north. A strong cold front will be sweeping across the Gulf of Mexico and off the southeast U.S. coast next weekend.
Building high pressure behind the front could trap the storm in the central Caribbean through the middle of next week, with eventual landfall in Central America. This is currently the hot favourite track. Nevertheless, a track to the northeast toward Haiti and the Dominican Republic early next week cannot be dismissed. Strong wind shear and dry air across the Gulf of Mexico and off the southeast U.S. Coast are still providing a strong barrier against any movement in that direction.