Disturbance fifty two - like watching paint dry

Saturday 19th November 2016

Disturbance fifty two has drifted north a little, now centred about 200 miles east of southern Nicaragua. Satellite imagery indicates that squalls have increased overnight. In addition, an overnight satellite pass found a low-level circulation centre with winds up to 30 knots which indicates that the disturbance may be close to becoming a tropical depression.

This is like watching paint dry. Building high pressure north of the Caribbean over the next few days will prevent any northward movement. Whether it develops or not, the most likely track would be to the west and inland into Nicaragua or even Costa Rica. There is no threat to the islands in the northern Caribbean or to the Gulf of Mexico.

Stand easy.

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