Disturbance fifty two close to tropical storm strength
Monday 21st November 2016
Disturbance fifty two has developed into tropical depression sixteen and tracked east, now centred around 200 miles east-sou'east of tiny San Andres Island (which is about 500 miles north of the Colombian coast). I have delayed sending this as current indicators show that this is likely to reach tropical storm strength very soon. Probably the second I hit send .... A slow easterly drift should continue for another day or so followed by a sprint west taking the storm ashore in southern Nicaragua on Friday.
Steady strengthening to hurricane intensity is forecast prior to landfall with winds of 80 to 85 knots thereafter weakening as the storm crosses Nicaragua on Friday, with the storm becoming a remnant low in the East Pacific over the weekend. Avid storm enthusiasts have given this a predicted peak hurricane severity rating of 9 out of a possible 50 points (3 size , 6 intensity) and a tropical storm windfield radius of 75 miles. Not the largest or most intense hurricane of the season by any means.