New system to form in the western Caribbean
Wednesday 14th June 2017
Disturbance Five isn't breaking any transatlantic crossing records having dropped down to dead slow ahead, now just a day and a half west of the Azores, still headed due west. Environmental conditions for development may pick up as this nears the Caribbean in about a week, albeit still only a slight chance.
It looks increasingly likely that a low pressure area will form in the north-west Caribbean this Saturday or Sunday. If this does form, it will make the trek across the Yucatan peninsula and move into the Bay of Campeche early next week. Once in the Gulf, environmental conditions are expected to be favourable for the system to become a tropical depression or even a tropical storm, but with a short life and early run ashore in Mexico. Whenever anything like this pipes up which involves a passage across land, any forecast increases its uncertainty. We will see.