Storm watch for Bay of Campeche - and possibly Trinidad

Saturday 17th June 2017

From west to east Disturbance Six is currently centred about 300 miles south of the western end of Cuba headed west-nor'west at 10 knots. Most European modellers have this tracking across the Bay of Campeche although there is some chatter from US modellers who are looking at a turn to the north east toward the Florida panhandle. I'd stick with route one across the northern Yucatan on Sunday night into Mexico around Tampico. This still has potential to become a tropical storm albeit not intense but over a wide area with some flooding for Central America and the northwest Caribbean. Storm force winds may reach the offshore oil leases of the northern Gulf.

Disturbance Five is around 3 days east of Trinidad headed west at 18 knots now. Satellite imagery looks a little weaker today but conditions may improve for development as this nears the Caribbean and may form a tropical storm as it passes Trinidad on Monday night/Tuesday morning. Regardless as to whether or not this becomes a tropical storm, winds of tropical storm force for Trinidad and Tobago are possible.

Disturbance Seven has joined the party and formed just two days astern of Five, moving west at 18 knots. This track should take the system into the Windward Islands late on Sunday or early Monday. While it may bring squalls to the Windward Islands, environmental conditions are not favourable for tropical development. Storm watch for Bay of Campeche.