Stand by with sou'westers offshore Texas

Monday 19th June 2017

All eyes on Disturbance Six which is now through the Yucatan Channel and into the southern Gulf of Mexico, currently 300 miles due south of the Mississippi, northbound at 8 knots. Despite not being upgraded to a storm yet, this has a hurrricane severity rating of 3 (2 size, 1 intensity) and anticipated peak of 5 out of 50 (3 for size / 2 intensity) on Wednesday. This will be a weak but broad storm over a predicted radius of 200 miles. The current consensus is for this to head west across the central Gulf, strengthening slightly before weakening at a landfall on Thursday somewhere on the mid Texas coast. This is all terribly vague and we will have a clearer view tomorrow. This will be a rainmaker and if I was offshore Texas, I'd run my storm plan and wear my sou'wester.

Disturbance Seven has wimped out over the islands of the north east Caribbean as it moves west-nor'west at around 18 knots. This is causing rain but weakening and has little chance of limelight.

Disturbance Five has some potential but also slow to upgrade. Currently 100 miles east of Trinidad belting west at a rapid 20 knots, this already has winds gusting storm force but also has a fairly weak hurricane severity rating - currently just 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity) and an expected peak of 3 (1 for size, 2 for intensity). Possibly due to a ludicrous ground speed, surface circulation is poor. This might reach tropical storm strength by the time it reaches Trinidad, but a westerly track thereafter will probably weaken the system as it interacts with the coast of Venezuela.

Disturbance Eight is around mid-Atlantic now and following the well-worn path west at 16 knots. Not convincing - could do better. Sou'westers for offshore Texas.

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