Quiet day - with some cobblers
Friday 30th June 2017
Disturbance Twelve is passing about 100 miles north of Lake Maracaibo now, westbound at 12 knots as it weakens. No threat. Disturbance Eleven is centred around 300 miles due north of the Amazon delta and moving west at 12 knots. Wind shear has this well under control. No threat.
Disturbance Thirteen is about three day's steaming west of the Cape Verde Islands, westbound at 10 knots. This has escaped the sand belt and is showing some impressive cloud patterns with a hint of rotation which indicates improved environmental conditions. This then goes from 'no chance' to 'slight'. We'll keep an eye on it. It does look as if we have a quiet week ahead, so I have checked out the usual catastrophists this morning. One or two are rubbing their thighs at the prospect of an increase in activity starting east of the Caribbean in the second week of July. A two week prediction at this time of year is utter cobblers if you ask me but as good a guess as anywhere.