Disturbance Thirteen organised but unpredictable

Wednesday 5th July 2017

Disturbance Thirteen has some pronounced surface circulation now, centred around 550 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon. The system is tracking slowly west which should provide energy for development, however circulating air has drawn a belt of dry air into the formation which has introduced a degree of sedation. Had this not happened, this would undoubtedly have become a tropical depression by now. This could be good news for the north east Caribbean however slow ground speed means that forecasting track or intensity is uncertain. I do think this will curve north and wouldn't dismiss a visit to the eastern seaboard, but like all forecasters at the moment, am basing that more on hunch than anything particularly scientific.

Stand easy.