Despite four disturbances, a quiet day at sea

Friday 14th July 2017

What remains of Tropical Depression Four now is just a broad, unexciting chunk of wet air with neither vertical nor horizontal circulation to concern anyone. This is loosely centred around 100 miles south of Pensacola and is likely to remain at this distance off the coasts of Mississippi and Louisiana as it tracks west at about 12 knots without developing until it eventually beaches in central coastal Texas late this coming weekend. Enhanced showers – very heavy in places - and thunderstorm activity is expected across the northern Gulf of Mexico, the Deep South and coastal Texas.

Disturbance Sixteen is centred just to the north of Haiti, headed west-nor'west at 12 knots. This is kitten-weak now and not expected to develop.

Disturbance Fourteen is passing the Lesser Antilles now, headed west at about 18 knots, unnoticeable aside from some scattered showers and the odd roll of thunder. Dry air is keeping this system weak. No development is expected. It's a mystery to me why this was hyped up.

Disturbance Fifteen is centred around 500 miles north east of the Amazon and is moving west at 12 knots. Overnight satellite footage shows some surface circulation but wider view shows this also headed for dry air which will dampen its enthusiasm.

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Stand easy.

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