Weather watch for the Windward Islands

Sunday 16th July 2017

From west to east: Tropical Disturbance Four has moved over southern Texas with heavy showers and localised thunderstorms. This is firmly ashore now and off my radar.

Disturbance Sixteen is over the western Bahamas moving slowly towards eastern Florida. This is bringing showers - heavy in places - but will not develop.

Disturbance Fourteen is westbound at 22 knots passing about 150 miles north of Lake Maracaibo. This is likely to run ashore in Nicaragua in the next 48 hours without developing. Finally,

Disturbance Fifteen is now centred around 400 miles north-nor'east of the mouth of the Amazon and headed west at 15 knots. Of the disturbances currently on our screen, this seems to be the only one with a spark of possibility, albeit short-lived. Aerial imagery shows some circulation and ripe conditions between now and passing the Windward Islands in around 48 hours. If this is to develop, it needs to get its finger out, as upper level shear awaits in the eastern Caribbean. Weather watch in the Windward Islands otherwise stand easy.