Unreliable source excited about new disturbance
Friday 28th July 2017
From west to east
Disturbance Nineteen is in the southern Caribbean nearing the conclusion of its uneventful and pointless crossing. This is now about 150 miles north-nor'west of Lake Maracaibo, westbound at 10 knots. This is already weak so westerly upper level wind shear should have no trouble polishing this off.
Disturbance Eighteen is well out to sea now, about 250 miles south east of Bermuda and heading harmlessly seaward. Dry air and high wind shear will see this off too.
Aerial imagery shows Disturbance Twenty One to be rather scrappy now as it battles dry air. This is centred around two day's steaming south west of the Cape Verde Islands. Once clear of dry air, there is some capacity for development but a long shot at the moment.
The much-heralded Disturbance Twenty Two is crossing the African coast westbound right now and set to join the westbound convoy. There is still some chatter that this could be The One - mainly from our occasionally inaccurate friend the wild marksman in the snowbound hut - but I really can't see it. Early days.