Storm fanciers' racing tip finding the going heavy

Friday 29th July 2017

West to east

Disturbance Nineteen is nearly ashore in Nicaragua now, almost done and dusted. Some showers in the area otherwise hardly noticeable unless you happen to be watching a barograph.
Disturbance Twenty One is now some 500 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon, on a westerly heading and making about 10 knots. This is now hitting upper level shear and sucking in dry air which will kill off the convection cycle. Development is unlikely.

The catastrophists' racing banker is already finding the going heavy. Currently passing the Cape Verde islands, cantering west at 15 knots, this seems to have left all its early promise back in the paddock. Surface organisation is poor and satellite imagery shows fragmented and shapeless cloud formation with dry air and upper level shear obstacles ahead. If I'd backed this horse, I'd be asking for my money back.

Stand easy.

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