Weakened EMILY seaborne

Tuesday 1st August 2017

From west to east

Despite the element of surprise for the people of central Florida, torrential rain in places, widespread power cuts and the rescue of two fishermen by the St Petersburg coastguard, Tropical storm EMILY was weak from the outset. Unsurprisingly, the storm faded further as it passed over Florida before emerging in the Atlantic as a tropical depression with maximum sustained winds of just a tad over 25 knots. Notwithstanding EMILY is now moving to the east-nor'east at 10 knots with hardly enough energy to spoil any more sailor's days.

Disappointing Disturbance Twenty Two is now around 600 miles to the east of the Leeward Islands and moving west at 22 knots. A pointlessly excessive ground speed whilst drawing dry air into the convection cycle is suppressing development. At present, the worst that may be expected is heavy showers and some thunderstorm activity across the eastern Caribbean on Wednesday.

Disturbance Twenty Three is around dead centre of the Atlantic convergence zone now and pushing west at 18 knots. Maritime observers report some strong squalls which are indicative of some surface organisation at least. This is expected to move into the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern Caribbean later this week and produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mariners who submit surface reports often complain that nobody reads them or appreciates their work. I do, and on the basis of a couple of ship reports I have looked at, am half minded to back this one for development. Let's see tomorrow.

Stand easy.

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