Train of westbound disturbances nears congestion
Wednesday 2nd August 2017
From west to east
Weakling EMILY has been absorbed by an occluded front which is eastbound from the eastern seaboard. This front may also have a sting in its tail as retreating fronts often do during the storm season. Weather watch needed either close to the panhandle or close to the east coast/Georgia border later this week.
We now have a train of disturbances trekking west from West Africa to the Caribbean, nearing congestion. Leading the charge is Disturbance Twenty Two which was given the kiss of death by the Canadian guy while it was still upriver from Banjul last week. This is now about half a day east of the Leeward Islands, westbound at 10 knots producing showers and thunderstorms but otherwise unlikely to develop for the time being.
About a day and a half steaming time astern of Twenty Two - about 500 miles due north of the Amazon - is a new low pressure cell designated Disturbance Twenty Five, also westbound at 10 knots. This is producing disorganised shower and thunderstorm activity which will also fill the skies of the Leeward Islands in the wake of its predecessor. This has a marginally better chance of development once it enters the Caribbean but still slim.
I may have been rash in backing Disturbance Twenty Three which has now lost most of its promising structure. Centred around midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Caribbean, this headed west at 12 knots. I'm still watching this but it's only a hunch.
Disturbance Twenty Six has just emerged off the coast of West Africa and is moving slowly west. Early days.