Developing system headed for south western Gulf
Saturday 5th August 2017
Disturbance Twenty Three is now about 350 miles south east of Kingston, Jamaica on a west-nor'westerly heading at 12 knots. At some time either side of the Yucatan peninsula this will beef up, more than likely on the Bay of Campeche side. This has already been given a maximum predicted hurricane severity rating of 6 out of a possible 50 points (2 for size and 4 for intensity) and a predicted tropical storm wind radius of 110 miles. Squalls have increased however surface organisation is poor and intensification may not occur until the system reaches the Gulf. I don't think anyone is in any doubt now that this will enter the south western Gulf where environmental conditions are absolutely spot on for storm development. The variables are the erosion effect of this crossing the Yucatan peninsula and the direction and speed it takes when it becomes seaborne again. Continued failure to organise before a debilitating run ashore on Monday night (I'm no stranger to debilitating nights ashore myself) and a quick dash across the southern Bay of Campeche would suit us all. Otherwise, this might be awkward.
A thousand miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon, Disturbance Twenty Six continues to fumble about with dry Saharan air on its westerly trek. Unsurprisingly for a system drawing in airborne sand, this low pressure cell is badly organised and only a few squalls are visible on satellite imagery. This doesn't seem to have much going for it and will struggle to cross the water. At worst, - as things stand - this will pass the Lesser Antilles in the middle of next week bringing heavy rain.
Storm plans for the south western Gulf otherwise stand easy.