Storm cones aloft in Cancun

Sunday 6th August 2017

Disturbance Twenty Three is now centred 500 miles south east of the Yucatan Channel headed west-nor'west at 12 knots and is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the Yucatan peninsula. This has yet to be given a current hurricane severity rating but peak maximum forecast has increased to 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity). The problem as we discussed yesterday is how much power this will lose when it crosses the peninsula and how much convection is in place when it becomes seaborne again in the Bay of Campeche which, unfortunately is at prime storm environmental state. It is likely to become a hurricane once seaborne and with an uncertain direction. The smart money is on this remaining in the southern half of the far western Gulf but is by no means guaranteed. Final landfall is expected to occur between Tuxpan and Tampico with only moderate impact on the coast of Texas or the offshore leases. I wouldn't be too complacent on that score.

Disturbance Twenty Six is centred around 800 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon and is moving west at 16 knots. By the middle of next week this will pass the Leeward Islands but tropical development is not expected.

Storm cones aloft in Cancun.

 

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