Tropical storm FRANKLIN first landfall tonight
Monday 7th August 2017
Disturbance Twenty Three did what we didn't really want it to do and upgraded to Tropical Storm FRANKLIN before reaching the Yucatan peninsula. This means there will be more residual organisation and convection after its trek across the peninsula when it emerges into the storm-development-fertile Bay of Campeche. It is almost certain then, that this will become a hurricane in the Bay of Campeche. Currently centred about 380 miles south of Cancun headed west-nor'west at 12 knots, this already has a hurricane severity rating of 5 out of 50 (2 for size and 3 for intensity) and is developing quickly - and may even reach hurricane strength before landfall in Yucatan overnight. After a run ashore when it will lose some oomph, it is likely to emerge in the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday when it is expected to strengthen again. Thereafter most commentators expect it to head for a landfall in southern Mexico. I'm always cautious about forecasting track when we still have the unknown influence of a land mass ahead. Personally, I'd be battening down any maritime assets in the western Gulf.
Disturbance Twenty Six is now centred about 1100 miles east of the Leeward Islands, westbound at 15 knots. This is still lacking significant formation. As things stand, this will cause rain and thunderstorms over the Leeward Islands on Wednesday and thereafter curve away from the Caribbean and head into the Atlantic.
Newbie Disturbance Twenty Seven has just left the African coast moving west at 15 knots. Dry air abounds so early development is not expected.
Stand by for Yucatan peninsula.