Tropical storm FRANKLIN nears Bay of Campeche

Monday 8th August 2017

From west to east

Tropical storm FRANKLIN is almost back at sea again after crossing the Yucatan peninsula, currently near the city of Campeche. Observations of cyclones ashore are of mixed relevance but in general terms, this is still showing weak tropical storm conditions and is expected to redevelop again once seaborne in the next few hours since development conditions are close to perfect in the Bay of Campeche. FRANKLIN has been given a predicted peak hurricane severity index rating of 9 out of a possible 50 (3 size, 6 intensity) and an anticipated 105 mile tropical storm windfield. This is expected to teach hurricane strength just before landfall near Tuxpan overnight on Wednesday. All the usual commentators are in agreement on this except for one who has this headed for Brownsville. No, not the Canadian guy but still one of the less reliable agencies. Having said that, I can see some credibility in his analysis. We'll know tomorrow.

Disturbance Twenty Eight is a new low pressure cell which has formed close to Puerto Rico moving west at 8 knots. This is likely to have an early encounter with a tropical wave close to the north which might mean a short lived impact. This is likely to be the cause of some rainfall the Bahamas over the next few days.

Disturbance Twenty Six is now centred 600 miles east of the Leeward Islands and moving to the west-nor'west at 16 knots. This system is expected to pass north of the Leeward Islands on Thursday then curve north into the western Atlantic where it may develop into a fish storm.

Disturbance Twenty Seven is around half a day west of the Cape Verde Islands moving west at 10 knots. Dry air abounds making development chances rather slim.

Stand by Bay of Campeche.