Hurricane GERT bullying sailors

Wednesday 16th August 2017

Hurricane GERT is now 380 miles north west of Bermuda, has turned the corner and is now on a north-easterly heading, accelerating towards the North Atlantic. Despite this, GERT will continue to strengthen for another 24 hours before weakening as it encounters cooler water. With a current hurricane severity rating of 18 out of a possible 50 points (9 for size and 9 for intensity), a predicted peak of 21 (11 for size and 10 for intensity) and a tropical storm windfield of 200 miles, this is becoming a nasty brute of a hurricane. Fortunately, GERT is only bullying seafarers ( unless you're a seafarer of course) and will have no impact on land.

This daily narrative would be easier if disturbances Thirty and Thirty One had merged as expected but now have differing prospects. Disturbance Thirty is about two days ahead, some 750 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon, set firmly west at 18 knots. There is still a tussle going on with dry air but a slim chance of development when or if this reaches the Caribbean.

Two days astern, Disturbance Thirty One is about 650 miles west of the Cape Verde islands moving slightly north of west at 18 knots. This is also mixing with dry air but has developed a weak surface circulation. Should this survive, its future is more likely to be a track north of the Caribbean.

Disturbance Thirty Two has just left the African coast and is moving west. Early days.

Another uncomfortable day in the western Atlantic, otherwise stand easy.