HARVEY approaching Curaçao
Disturbance Thirty developed overnight and is now Tropical Storm HARVEY, which crossed Barbados and the Windward Islands producing squalls and strong winds this morning. Now 470 miles east of Curaçao, HARVEY is moving west at 18 knots. Ground speed is keeping this storm in check and is currently only HSI rated at 2 out of a possible 50 (1 for size, 1 for intensity) with wind speeds around 40 knots max. Conditions ahead are not particularly favourable until the storm reaches the western Caribbean. If this tracks anything north of west though, a route to the southern Gulf of Mexico or Bay of Campeche can't be ruled out and there, as we know, warm waters await. This may be clearer tomorrow.
Disturbance Thirty Three is a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low across Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas and is moving west-nor'west at 18 knots. Conditions are not particularly favourable for development as this moves across Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend then across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
Disturbance Thirty One is now about 830 miles east of the Windward Islands, moving west-nor'west at 22 knots. The disturbance is expected to pass close to the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands Saturday and pass north Puerto Rico Sunday with a some chances of development and may become a tropical storm by the time it passes near the northeast Caribbean Sea before passing north of the Caribbean and across the Bahamas on Monday. Environmental conditions are not particularly favourable thereafter. Too early to predict a track beyond Tuesday.
Disturbance Thirty Two is now two days steaming west of the Cape Verde Islands moving to the west-nor'west at 21 knots. Dry air ahead is not favourable for intensification. Watch and wait.
Storm cones aloft in the Netherlands Antilles.