Weak storm HARVEY passing north of Aruba
Saturday 19th August 2017
From west to east ...
Disturbance Thirty Three is an open tropical wave now, loosely centred across the Bahamas and central Cuba on a west-nor'westerly heading at 15 knots. Frontal interaction is keeping this quiet and will continue to do so as it enters the eastern Gulf of Mexico and tracks west.
Tropical Storm HARVEY Is now 150 miles north of Aruba headed west at 20 knots. Compared to GERT, this is a breeze. With a current severity rating of 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity) this is barely a storm. If this continues west there may be some intensification as it approaches Central America but mainly as a rainmaker. A turn north and approach to the Gulf of Mexico where lush warm water awaits would be an entirely different matter and HARVEY could become considerably stronger. A wallbanger you might say.
I'm sorry about that. It won't happen again.
Disturbance Thirty One is centred around 350 miles north of the Virgin Island moving west-nor'west at 22 knots. This is kitten-weak and conditions ahead aren't going to make a lion of it. It may make the Bahamas by Tuesday and thereafter head seaward.
Disturbance Thirty Two is around 1000 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon, westbound at 23 knots. Dry air and a wasteful groundspeed will prevent development. This looks set to curve into the western Atlantic without significant development, at least until past and clear of the Caribbean.
Raincoats for the Netherlands Antilles.