Weak HARVEY possible revival in Bay of Campeche
Sunday 20th August 2017
Disturbance Thirty Three weakened as it passed across the Florida peninsula and is now little more than a tropical wave, loosely centred over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This is being repressed and weakened by frontal activity to the north so unlikely to develop as it heads west across the Gulf.
HARVEY Is also weaker today, much downgraded. Currently 200 miles south of Jamaica, westbound at 18 knots, this no longer has a hurricane severity rating however some commentators are discussing a revival as it heads towards the Yucatan. This may yet be a tropical depression or minimal tropical storm by the time it reaches the Yucatan on Tuesday although primary risk is still from rain rather than wind. By Wednesday, it is possible that HARVEY will enter the Bay of Campeche where development is highly likely. Personally, I'd have the storm plans ready for the south western Gulf. As usual, the effect of a run ashore across the Yucatan introduces many variables. We'll keep a watch.
Disturbance Thirty One has opened up into a weak low pressure wave which extends north east from the Virgin Islands for about 150 miles. This will produce heavy showers and thunderstorms across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today before crossing the Bahamas on Monday. No development is expected as this crosses the Florida peninsula and enters the north eastern Gulf.
Disturbance Thirty is now centred around 750 miles due north of the Amazon moving west-nor'west at 23 knots. This is set to curve away from the Caribbean and well out to sea.
Disturbance Thirty Four is crossing the coast of west Africa now and is westbound at 18 knots. Dry air awaits.