HARVEY bound for Bay of Campeche

Monday 21st August 2017

From west to east

Disturbance Thirty Three is an open tropical wave over the central Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan peninsula. This is being kept in its place by the tail end of a cold front which has a belt of wind shear in its wake. This is unlikely to develop as it tracks west.

The leftovers of HARVEY will move into a more favourable environment for development across the northwestern Caribbean today before heading west-nor'west and crossing the Yucatan peninsula. Once this emerges into the Bay of Campeche, conditions are perfect for storm development and we may see HARVEY II redevelop and head for a landfall north of Tampico on Friday.

Disturbance Thirty One is centred 150 miles east of the Bahamas moving to the west-nor'west at 15 knots. This will increase shower and thunderstorms across the Bahamas and Florida today through to Wednesday then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week before being dragged east again by an advancing trough. It is unlikely to develop however on its return to the Atlantic there may be a change in environment.

Disturbance Thirty Two is 700 miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles and moving to the northwest at a brisk 23 knots. Speed and upper level shear are killing off any chances of development.

Disturbance Thirty Four is moving west across the Cape Verde Islands at 13 knots. This also has dry air to contend with. Early days.

Stand easy.