HARVEY digging in for hurricane intensity
Thursday 24th August 2017
Tropical storm HARVEY is now 430 miles south east of Corpus Christi almost at a standstill - which is not good news as this will allow further development. The current consensus is for HARVEY to make a landfall near Corpus Christi on Friday night as a category 2 hurricane with a severity index rating of 11 out of a possible 50 points (4 for size and 7 for intensity) and a tropical storm windfield of 115 miles. I'm no expert but feel that intensity forecast may be rather conservative if this doesn't get a decent speed on, it will dig in and I wouldn't be surprised to see this make category three. To add to gloomy predictions, it is also possible that this may run north east and parallel the coast for a while after landfall. Not good as this will be a considerable rainmaker and flooding ashore can be expected.
Another system we'd all like to get a move on is Disturbance Thirty One which is skulking about over south western Florida. This should begin to move to the northeast during the next few days but until then heavy rain will continue. Once seaborne again along the east coast, conditions are ripe for this to develop into a tropical storm along the eastern seaboard.
Disturbance Thirty Five is centred around 850 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon, westbound at 15 knots. Conditions are not particularly favourable for this to develop at present.
Disturbance Thirty Five has just passed the Cape Verde islands westbound at 12 knots. This also has a struggle ahead.
Standby time for Corpus Christi.