PM Sunday 10th September 2017
From west to east
Lethal Hurricane IRMA is currently centred mid way between Key West and Fort Myers, with the eye partially ashore along the west coast of Florida with a final full landfall still expected around Charlotte Harbour tonight before passing over or close to Tampa. Maximum winds are near 110 knots making IRMA a category 4 hurricane. In addition to destructive winds and flooding across southern Florida, a severe tidal surge is expected. There is some medium term good news in a slight wobble in the last hour, possibly due to prolonged interaction with Florida and a puff of south westerly wind shear. This may be too late to dull the impact of IRMA over Florida but may mean that the cyclone weakens a little more quickly as it closes on Georgia. For now, life-threatening wind and storm surges with torrential rain will continue in the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida today and spread into central and northwestern Florida tonight and into tomorrow.
Category 4 hurricane JOSE is now centred 250 miles north of Puerto Rico headed harmlessly north west at 15 knots and will slow down and loaf about for a few aimless days. Thereafter, JOSE has a variety of differing models, some of which involve a turn towards the continental United States, but this is highly speculative.
Disturbance Thirty Eight is located about 225 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and is moving to the west-nor'west at 22 knots. This disturbance may enhance showers and thunderstorms across the Lesser Antilles over the next day or two but is not expected to develop.
Disturbance Thirty Nine is a strong tropical wave passing close south of the Cape Verde Islands and is moving west at 18 knots. Development is more than likely, as is a welcome early turn into the eastern Atlantic.
Stand to across the state of Florida.