Monday 11th September 2017
The worst of IRMA is over but not without leaving destruction in its wake. Two duty police officers killed in Palm Beach adds further tragedy. Currently 80 miles north of Tampa headed north-nor'west at 16 knots, IRMA is in its final hurricane hours, weakening as its eye structure collapses towards its most welcome demise. There are no recent observations of hurricane-force winds near the centre, where surface observers report no more than 65 knots although some will inevitably still occur over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, west of the cyclone centre. IRMA is now expected to move around the eastern side of a mid-level disturbance currently located along Gulf Coast meaning a track across the eastern Florida Panhandle, southwestern Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and eventually into western Tennessee, weakening by the hour.
Hurricane JOSE is also weakening and is expected to loaf about in roughly the same area of the Atlantic through the middle of this week. Thereafter a wild and wacky set of model tracks are being discussed - only the bravest modeller would say they don't have a clue, of course. The closest to common sense would seem to be a clockwise turn back towards the west and thereafter a slow approach to the eastern seaboard by which time, development conditions will be ideal for further strengthening before a second turn seaward. But don't quote me.
Disturbance Thirty Eight is now within spitting distance of the Leeward Islands moving west at 13 knots. This will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over the Lesser Antilles today but no development is expected.
Disturbance Thirty Nine is about 600 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon moving west at 18 knots. This still looks set for uninspiring and unremarkable mid-Atlantic anonymity.
Stand by southern states for a weakening IRMA.