IRMA bows out
Tuesday 12th September 2017
From west to east –
IRMA has weakened to a remnant low now and is continuing to weaken as it tracks northwest through northern Alabama and into Tennessee. Rainbands associated with the system are gradually weakening and tidal surges along the Carolina Coast are falling. As far as our daily marine focus is concerned, IRMA is off radar now. Good riddance.
Category 1 hurricane JOSE is continuing to keep us all waiting. Currently centred some 475 miles north-east of the Bahamas, the cyclone is set to wander aimlessly in more or less the same location for a couple more days. By Friday, pressure gradients will have taken shape and set a path for JOSE. Most observers are reporting the possibility of a turn south then a path west where fertile conditions await which could push JOSE up to a category 3 hurricane again. It is probable that JOSE will take a round turn and head into the north Atlantic however, a slim chance exists that this could track towards the Bahamas or eastern seaboard although this is not a widespread view.
Disturbance Thirty Eight is westbound, passing a little to the north of the Netherlands at 18 knots. This has very little chance of development and will, one hopes, cross the rest of the southern Caribbean without a peep.
Disturbance Thirty Nine is around 800 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon, just beginning to turn to a more northerly heading towards Atlantic anonymity without development.
Disturbance Forty is slipping the surly bonds of the west African coast, outbound at around 12 knots. This has a twinkle in its eye and is showing signs of youthful enthusiasm. If this were to survive the crossing, it would make the Lesser Antilles in about a week . We need to watch this.
Aside for words of caution to seafarers in the region of JOSE, who have quite frankly had plenty of opportunity to avoid a stationary hurricane, we may stand easy today.