Developing hurricane set to join Caribbean siege

Saturday 16th September 2017

From west to east

Although we don't cover the Pacific in our daily reports, a short comment on MAX may be of interest. This Pacific hurricane made a devastating landfall in San Marcos, a township just east of Acapulco but rapidly weakened and won't jump the fence into the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane JOSE is producing strong thunderstorms, and it has become better organised, currently centred 480 miles south-sou'east of Cape Hatteras and moving north-nor'west at 5 knots. This has a current hurricane severity intensity rating of 10 out 50 points (5 for size and 5 for intensity) producing maximum winds of 90 knots. JOSE will slowly move north over the next few days as a minimal hurricane passing between the Outer Banks and Bermuda strengthening to a predicted HSI rating of 12 (5 for size and 7 for intensity) with a tropical storm force wind radius of 230 miles as it turns north to pass southeast of Cape Cod in the middle of next week. Prolonged slow motion has made this a substantial rainmaker and as the storm heads north, tropical storm force winds and very torrential rain could impact areas from New Jersey to Cape Cod. If the track shifts west, stronger winds and heavier rains are likely along the north eastern seaboard . Beyond Wednesday, the track is vague but generally points to a track seaward.

Tropical Disturbance Forty is 580 miles east of the Leeward Islands moving west at 18 knots. This is developing with a hurricane twinkle in its eye as it approaches the extreme north eastern Caribbean islands in two to three days' time. Although this is early days and far from certain, most predicted tracks pass north of the islands and converge on Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic by the middle of the week on a track eventually nudging north towards the Carolinas. Nevertheless a predicted peak HSI of 19 (10 for size and 9 for intensity) is expected. The siege looks set to continue.

Tropical Depression Fourteen has deepened and upgraded in the last hour to Tropical Storm LEE in eastern Atlantic with maximum sustained winds of 35 knots. The storm is headed slightly north of west at 10 knots headed nicely towards a belt of westerly shear which should steer this into Atlantic anonymity and weaken it considerably in the next few days. One less storm to worry about.

Storm cones aloft on the eastern seaboard and north east Caribbean, again.