MARIA close to Turks and Caicos Islands

Thursday 21st September 2017

Tropical storm JOSE is currently stationary centred around 120 miles south east of Nantucket at peak HSI rating of just 8 (5 for size and 3 for intensity) producing winds of around 65 knots over a 195 mile radius. Squalls continue to impact parts of southeastern Massachusetts with gusts of tropical storm intensity reported in Martha's Vineyard and southern Cape Cod. JOSE will continue to weaken as it drifts aimlessly over the next couple of days then dissipate. Nearly done.

Hurricane MARIA is centred around 150 miles east-sou'east of the Turks and Caicos Islands headed north west at 7 knots. This will pass dangerously close to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands as it strengthens towards a peak HSI of 27 (14 for size and 13 for intensity) producing 135 knot winds over a 200 mile radius tropical storm strength windfield. Thereafter the track seems to be nudging slightly east of previous predictions but still generally north west. Thereafter MARIA will move over waters that were churned and cooled by JOSE and encounter welcome wind shear. Nonetheless there is still no firm commitment from MARIA not to hit the eastern seaboard although chances are reducing. Of course a windfield of this size will inevitably cause some tropical storm winds around the Outer Banks at the very least.

The remnants of LEE are well out to sea almost midway between Florida and Morocco. The system is weak and will remain out at sea before dissipating.

Disturbance Forty Two is now three to four days steaming west of the Cape Verde Islands moving to the west-nor'west at 18 knots. The system is expected to gradually turn north-west and give us all a break. Regardless of development, it is expected to not impact any land areas.

Stand by for hurricane conditions in the Turks and Caicos Islands.