From west to east
Precipitation activity will increase across the entire Bay of Campeche and southern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days due to a surge of moisture from the Pacific. Tropical development is not expected however this does illustrate the next breach in the castle wall and a serious ttack is only a matter of time.
Hurricane MARIA is now 310 miles south-sou'east of Cape Hatteras, northbound at 4 knots. This is at peak HSI now a reduced 16 (10 for size and 6 for intensity) with maximum sustained winds of 90 knots and a tropical storm wind field radius of 230 miles. As we hoped yesterday, MARIA is passing over cooler waters churned by JOSE and has weakened as a consequence. The eye is no longer visible from space and there are signs of vertical convection beginning to fail. Nonetheless, this is still a hurricane and will continue to move north with an ETA passing 100 miles east of the Outer Banks on Wednesday. How much impact MARIA has on North Carolina depends very much on how much is weakens en route, but weaken it will and thereafter a dash north east and long awaited dissipation.
Hurricane LEE is centred 900 miles east of Bermuda, still producing 85 knot winds. Further intensification is possible over the next few days as LEE moves northeast into the North Atlantic. There is still no threat to land.
Storm cones aloft North Carolina.