LEE and MARIA clear of land, misery confined to open seas...

Friday 29th September 2017

From west to east –

A kitten-weak puff of low pressure associated with Disturbance Forty Three has developed 80 miles to the south of Miami but of low expectancy in the short term, due to interaction with an upper level low to the west. The disturbance will move north passing east of south Florida this evening and to the east of the northern Florida peninsula on Saturday and thereafter turn west and move into the northern Florida peninsula on Sunday. Environmental conditions thereafter improve slightly, however westerly wind shear is expected and significant development is not expected before it reaches the Gulf of Mexico and drifts ashore. The greatest threat to Florida and southern Georgia will be from heavy rainfall.

Disturbance Forty Four is a day west of the Leeward Islands, westbound at 10 knots. Whilst this looks fairly benign at the moment, any disturbance headed towards the western Caribbean at the moment has potential for development and unpleasantness.

Tropical Storm MARIA is located 300 miles to the north-nor'east of Bermuda and is moving east at 15 knots. Maximum winds are down to 50 gusting 60 knots with a tropical storm strength windfield of 200 miles. MARIA will soon start to accelerate into the North Atlantic and become absorbed into North Atlantic gloom without further upset.

Hurricane LEE is located 700 miles to the northeast of Bermuda and is dashing northeast at 22 knots. Maximum winds have decreased to 65 gusting 80 knots. This will also accelerate into the North Atlantic and dissipate soon.

Medium to long-term forward tracks are available on line for both MARIA and LEE which are of absolutely no use whatsoever. A good rule of thumb for weather forecasting in the temperate latitudes of the north Atlantic at this time of year is - 6 hours, OK. 12 hours, a little less OK. 24 hours, marginal value. 36 hours, guesswork. 48 hours nonsense and 72 hours, lies. Please refer to these tracks with due caution.

Disturbance Forty Five is three days east of the Cape Verde Islands moving west at 15 knots battling sand. No development expected in the short term.

Disturbance Forty Six is between the African coast and Cape Verde Islands moving to the west at 14 knots. This also has a sand fight ahead.

Hard day at sea in the north Atlantic, otherwise stand easy. 

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