First hurricane free day for almost four weeks

 30th September 2017

From east to west

The wires are buzzing this morning with talk of a tropical development in the western Caribbean sometime towards the middle of this week. A broad area of low pressure looks to be shaping up with some expectations of development. Conditions are right for cyclone development although I would stress this is still theory only.

Disturbance Forty Three is still a barely recognisable low pressure cell currently centred over central Florida drifting towards Jacksonville. This will turn west overnight and drift into the north eastern Gulf of Mexico and then trace the coast west towards Louisiana. As this will be battered by upper level shear and be at least half land-based, development is unlikely aside from some heavy rain.

Disrurbance Forty Four is close to the northernmost Leeward Islands headed west-nor'west. This will pass the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tomorrow as it heads a little north of west but upper level shear is on our side and development is not expected.

Disturbance Forty Five is around mid way between the Cape Verde and Leeward Islands headed west at 12 knots. This is still battling sand but unperturbed and may reach the Caribbean by Tuesday. Worth watching.

To the north, tropical storm MARIA is now 590 miles south sou'east of Newfoundland dashing east at an eye-watering 32 knots. Maximum winds are down to 45 knots. MARIA has had its day.

LEE has been absorbed by a frontal system in the North Atlantic and is no longer an independent cyclone. This is our first hurricane free day for almost four weeks. One of the modellers who actually believes storm tracks across the North Atlantic can actually be predicted six days ahead had this down as hitting Great Britain early next week with a track close to my house. I think the Canadian guy has found me.

Disturbance Forty Six is passing south of the Cape Verde islands, westbound at 12 knots into airborne sand. This will struggle to make the crossing.

Stand easy