Slight chance of development in western Caribbean
Tuesday 3rd October 2017
From west to east -
The stage appears to be set for an area of low pressure to form in the western Caribbean towards the end of the week. Current models have this tracking round the ring-fenced western Gulf of Mexico towards Florida and Alabama where upper level shear awaits. This should prevent significant development but heavy rain and thunderstorm activity may be expected.
Disturbance Forty Four is currently over the southern Bahamas moving west at 8 knots causing squally conditions for the next couple of days to the Bahamas and thereafter to the Florida peninsula. Aside from heavy rain, tropical development is unlikely.
Disturbance Forty Six is about 350 miles north of the mouth of the Amazon moving west-nor'west at 12 knots. This is not particularly well organised but producing some rain squalls with the odd roll of thunder which may be felt ashore in the northernmost Leeward Islands over the next few days as is curves harmlessly into the western Atlantic.