NATE set to enter central Gulf of Mexico and strengthen

Friday 6th October 2017

Tropical Storm NATE is centred about 215 miles to the south-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico moving north-nor'west at 10 knots. Sustained winds have increased to 40 gusting 55 knots and increasing. At present, this has a negligible hurricane severity index rating but is predicted to reach 10 out of a possible 50 points (4 size, 6 intensity) with a tropical storm force windfield radius of 140 miles - mainly to the east. This has been a significant rainmaker in central America, having claimed over 20 lives and will bring a wet and windy night to Cozumel and Cancun tonight as it clips the western shore of the Yucatan channel tonight. NATE will then enter the central Gulf of Mexico in the morning, then move quickly across the Gulf towards south-eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and south western Alabama overnight on Saturday. A high ground speed and some upper level shear may prevent NATE from digging deep but will still reach category one by landfall. As the windfield is predicted to be pushed east, the offshore lease areas may escape the worst of NATE but will still be subject to tropical storm force winds.

Disturbance Forty Four is entering the Bay of Campeche from the east, moving west at 18 knots, effectively sprinting across the path ahead of NATE. This will slip unnoticed into northern Mexico late tomorrow.

Disturbance Forty Six is passing north of Puerto Rico generating disorganised showers as it moves west at 8 knots. Development is not expected here either.

Disturbance Forty Eight is now about 275 miles east of the Lesser Antilles moving at 15 knots. Environmental conditions are unfavourable for development aside from enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity across the Lesser Antilles this weekend.

Disturbance Forty Nine has formed about 700 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon moving west-nor'west at 12 knots. Dry air abounds. We'll see. Stand by for tropical storm conditions around the Yucatan channel thereafter hurricane conditions across the central Gulf of Mexico to Alabama.