Two possible storms ahead in the short to medium term

Monday 9th October 2017

Disturbance Forty Nine is centred around 700 miles due north of the mouth of the Amazon headed west-nor'west at 12 knots. Good, lusty upper level wind shear is pushing shower and thunderstorm activity to the east, which interrupts the convection cycle and reduces any chance of tropical development. Unfortunately, this is likely to ease up by the middle of the week as the disturbance passes north of the Leeward Islands and approaches the Bahamas. One or two keen modellers, including the Canadian guy, are suggesting that this could become a tropical depression or weak tropical storm around that time. I'm not convinced and in any event, another band of upper level shear is on its way so any development is likely to be short lived.

Disturbance Fifty has been upgraded to Tropical Depression Seventeen. Currently sat around aimlessly some 900 miles east of the Azores, this is expected to move to the east tonight, then the southeast on Tuesday and thereafter, to the east and northeast. The depression looks set to strengthen to a tropical storm over the next 24 hours but is not expected to be a threat to any land area.

Disturbance Fifty One is now centred some 500 miles south-sou'west of the Cape Verde Islands, moving west at 20 knots. This is struggling with airborne sand and has a fight on its hands to cross the water.

Stand easy.